Thursday, August 28, 2008

Metropolitan Statistical Area Shuffle (or the coming Demographic Inversion)

"Demographic Inversion", what is it, where has it occurred and why should you take note of this developing trend in the United States. My good friend, David Ginsburg, the President and CEO of Downtown Cincinnati, Inc., forwarded to me an article posted on The New Republic website entitled Trading Places written by Alan Ehrenhalt. The article discusses a trend which has its roots far back in the development of the urban centers of Europe, from Paris to Vienna, where middle class society lived within the urban core and the working poor and newly arrived immigrants lived further out beyond the urban core. Cities in North America from Chicago, Manhattan, San Francisco to Vancoover have witnessed demographic inversion over the last 30 years. The de-industrialization of our cities has made demographic inversion possible. As manufacturing and distribution facilities relocated in our outlying suburbs and exburbs the urban cores of these great cities opened up to permit the infusion of a service industry economy and the housing stock for those new "urbanites" to live and raise families.

As pressure is put on our "auto" economy the suburbs and exburbs in the second tier United States cities (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dayton, Toledo, Akron, Pittsburgh, St. Louis) are ripe to take advantage of their own "demographic inversion." It is not just the need to change transportation and commuting habits, but lifestyle changes are driving this trend. The Generation X and Y segment of our population wants to live in an environment condusive to the social networking they participate on-line. An urban lifestyle in which work, play and learning can take place and stimulate growth and enhance the urban experience. Government and public institutions need to help stimulate this trend by permitting zoning law changes, development tax incentives, re-building the inner city public schools and development of efficient public trnasportation systems.

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